Challenges of simulating complex environmental systems at the landscape scale: A controversial dialogue between two cups of espresso

With the advancement of computational systems and the development of model integration concepts, complexity of environmental model systems increased. In contrast to that, theory and knowledge about > environmental systems as well as the capability for environmental systems analyses remained, to a large extent, unchanged. As a consequence, model conceptualization, data gathering, and validation, have faced new challenges that hardly can be tackled by modellers alone. In this discourse-like review, we argue that modelling with reliable simulations of human-environmental interactions necessitate linking modelling and simulation research much stronger to science fields such as landscape ecology, community ecology, eco-hydrology, etc. It thus becomes more and more important to identify the adequate degree of complexity in environmental models (which is not only a technical or methodological question), to ensure data availability, and to test model performance. Even equally important, providing problem specific answers to environmental problems using simulation tools requires addressing end-user and stakeholder requirements during early stages of problem development. In doing so, we avoid modelling and simulation as an end of its own.     

库布齐沙漠典型地区景观变化研究

Spatial pattern analysis is the core component in landscape ecology research. We analyzed the landscape pattern and dynamic process of the Kubuqi Desert by using a typical region as a study area. This study area includes four towns: ShuLinZhao, WangAiZhao, BaiNiJing and JiGeSiTai. The area of cropland, fixed sand dune, woodland, residential area and wetland increased and centralized gradually, while the area of semi-fixed sand dune, drifting sand dune, meadow and washland decreased and dispersed gradually from 1987 to 2003. On the landscape level, the patch shape tended to be regular, and the landscape pattern tended to be simple, causing the fragmentation degree, heterogeneity and diversity of the landscape to decrease. Fixed sand dune, Semi-fixed sand dune, drifting sand dune, meadow and river flood plains were the five main export classes, and residential area, cropland and wetland were the three main import classes. The classes that had a relatively large total area and large average patch area had a smaller extent of gravity center migration, whereas the classes with small total area and small average patch area had a larger extent of gravity center migration; this is because the small patches are easily influenced by human activities or natural factors. In addition, the desertification area and desertification degree reduced gradually in the study area during the period from 1987 to 2003.     

Simulating Spatial and Temporal Context of Forest Management Using Hypothetical Landscapes

/ Spatially explicit models that combine remote sensing with geographic information systems (GIS) offer great promise to land managers because they consider the arrangement of landscape elements in time and space. Their visual and geographic nature facilitate the comparison of alternative landscape designs. Among various activities associated with forest management, none cause greater concern than the impacts of timber harvesting on the composition, structure, and function of landscape ecosystems. A timber harvest allocation model (HARVEST) was used to simulate different intensities of timber harvest on 23,592-ha hypothetical landscapes with varying sizes of timber production areas and different initial stand age distributions. Our objectives were to: (1) determine the relative effects of the size of timber production areas, harvest intensity, method used to extract timber, and past timber harvest activity on the production of forest interior and edge; and (2) evaluate how past management (in the form of different initial stand age distributions) constrains future timber production options. Our simulations indicated that the total area of forest interior and the amount of forest edge were primarily influenced by the intensity of timber harvest and the size of openings created by harvest. The size of the largest block of interior forest was influenced most by the size of timber harvests, but the intensity of harvest was also significant, and the size of nontimber production areas was important when harvests were numerous and widely dispersed within timber management areas, as is often the case in managed forests. Stand age-class distributions produced by past harvest activity limited the amount of timber production primarily when group selection was used, but also limited clear-cutting when recent harvest levels were high.KEY WORDS: Simulation modeling; Timber harvest; Historical context; Spatial context; Landscape pattern; Forest interior; Forest edge     

Indicators Assessment for Habitat Conservation Plan of Yolo County, California, USA

/ Whereas habitat conservation plans (HCPs) have been intended to provide comprehensive environmental mitigation for multiple species, they often narrow in focus to one species and either one mitigation site or unspecified sites. We developed an indicators framework from which to rate land units for their ecological integrity, collateral values (nonbiological qualities that can improve conservation), and restoration and conservation opportunities. The ratings of land units were guided by the tenets of conservation biology and principles of landscape and ecosystem ecology, and they were made using existing physical and floral information managed on a GIS. As an example of how the indicators approach can be used for HCPs, the 29 legally rare species targeted by the Yolo County HCP were each associated with vegetation complexes and agricultural crops, the maps of which were used for rating some of the landscape indices. The ratings were mapped so that mitigation can be directed to the places on the landscape where the legally rare species should benefit most from conservation practices. The most highly rated land units for conservation opportunity occurred along streams and sloughs, especially where they emerged from the foothills and entered the Central Valley and where the two largest creeks intersected the Sacramento River flood basin. We recommend that priority be given to mitigation or conservation at the most highly rated land units. The indices were easy to measure and can be used with other tools to monitor the mitigation success. The indicators framework can be applied to other large-area planning efforts with some modifications.KEY WORDS: Ecosystem; Indicators; Landscape; Mitigation; Planning; Yolo County; California     

Estimating biodiversity impacts without field surveys: A case study in northern Borneo

In many regions of the world, biodiversity surveys are not routinely conducted prior to activities that lead to land conversion, such as development projects. Here we use top-down methods based on global range maps and bottom-up methods based on macroecological scaling laws to illuminate the otherwise hidden biodiversity impacts of three large hydroelectric dams in the state of Sarawak in northern Borneo. Our retrospective impact assessment finds that the three reservoirs inundate habitat for 331 species of birds (3 million individuals) and 164 species of mammals (110 million individuals). A minimum of 2100 species of trees (900 million individuals) and 17 700 species of arthropods (34 billion individuals) are estimated to be affected by the dams. No extinctions of bird, mammal, or tree species are expected due to habitat loss following reservoir inundation, while 4–7 arthropod species extinctions are predicted. These assessment methods are applicable to any data-limited system undergoing land-use change.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0683-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

基于3S技术的矿产资源开发景观格局动态变化研究——以木里县梭罗沟金矿改扩建工程为例

本文在阐述3S技术特点的基础上,以四川省木里县梭罗沟金矿改扩建工程所在地的梭罗沟和如米沟为研究区,介绍了3S技术在景观格局信息提取的技术要求、数据收集和工作流程,并对研究区景观格局的提取结果进行了动态变化预测与分析。实例研究证明,3S技术是景观生态学研究的重要技术工具,应用3S技术开展矿产资源开发景观格局动态评价,可以准确、快速地提取景观格局的主要特征指标,掌握景观格局现状、预测其动态变化特征、揭示其变化规律,满足区域景观格局研究的要求。本研究方法适用于生态类建设项目或区域开发规划的景观格局中短期动态预测研究,不宜用于景观格局长期的动态预测。     

Phoenix flagships: Conservation values and guanaco reintroduction in an anthropogenic landscape

Multiple forms of valuation contribute to public acceptance of conservation projects. Here, we consider how esthetic, intrinsic, and utilitarian values contribute to public attitudes toward a proposed reintroduction of guanaco (Lama guanicoe) in a silvopastoral system of central Chile. The nexus among landscape perceptions and valuations, support for reintroductions, and management of anthropogenic habitats is of increasing interest due to the proliferation of conservation approaches combining some or all of these elements, including rewilding and reconciliation ecology, for example. We assessed attitudes and values through an online questionnaire for residents of Santiago, Chile, using multiple methods including photo-montages and Likert scale assessments of value-based statements. We also combined the questionnaire approach with key informant interviews. We find strong support for the reintroduction of guanacos into the Chilean silvopastoral system (‘espinal’) in terms of esthetic and intrinsic values but less in terms of utilitarian values. Respondents preferred a scenario of espinal with guanacos and expressed interest in visiting it, as well as support for the reintroduction project on the basis that guanacos are native to central Chile. We suggest that reintroduced guanacos could serve as a ‘phoenix flagship species’ for espinal conservation, that is, a flagship species that has gone regionally extinct and is known but not associated with the region in the cultural memory. We consider how the lack of local cultural identity can both help and weaken phoenix flagships, which we expect to become more common.     

Potential impact model to assess agricultural pressure to landscape ecological functions

Conservation and protection of soil and water resources and visual aspects of landscape, as well as the promotion of biodiversity, are some of the central tasks of environmental policy development and social politics in the future. One of the main questions is: ‘which agricultural systems are able to guarantee sustained resource-conserving land use?’ Based on the ecological risk concepts of the 1970s and 1980s, a potential impact model was developed using a universal assessment algorithm derived from fuzzy logic. The model estimated the potential impact of agricultural land use on ecosystem function using a few resource indicators. Intervention intensities of agricultural land-use are set in relation to site conditions and aggregated for each of several defined potential impact categories. The interpretation with respect to risk and the calculation of potential impact values are explained.     

Analysis of landscape pattern: towards a ‘top down’ indicator for evaluation of landuse

Landscapes as highly complex systems are subject to many different assessment procedures despite the fact that their development is not really predictable. Every synthetic model of landscape functioning will probably fail in demonstrating the landscape behaviour due to the decreasing precision and relevance of its output with increasing complexity. Two approaches are presented here which use deductive methods to describe landscape behaviour as indicated by its spatial structure. The one is a correlative concept which is characterized by all the advantages and disadvantages of statistical regression methods. It is strongly dependent on data quality. In the second study an expert knowledge system is developed. Fuzzy set theory is applied to transfer rules of landscape ecological experience to image parameters derived from satellite data. Both approaches are compared regarding the problems faced in the work during implication. Theoretical restrictions and the applicability in landscape assessment is discussed.     

Assessment of the contribution of land use pattern and intensity to landscape quality: use of a landscape indicator

The objective of this research work is the evaluation of the impact of landuse pattern and intensity on landscape by means of an indicator. The method used to calculate a ‘landscape indicator’ (I_land) allows to take into account the objective as well as the subjective approach of landscape. I_land corresponds to the degree of agreement between landscape supply by farmers and landscape demand by the social groups. The supply and the demand are evaluated through four criteria: ‘diversity’, ‘upkeep’, ‘openness’ and ‘heritage’. The landscape supply is calculated from data of landscape objects (punctual, linear and spatial) for each criterion recorded at the field level. The values of the four criteria for the landscape demand are allocated by the user(s) of the indicator (decision makers, regional council, social groups…) into five classes (0–4). The value of the landscape indicator is the least favourable difference between supply and demand for the four criteria. An example of calculation of the ‘landscape indicator’ for an arable farm is given. The collection of data needs 2 h with the farmer and 2 h for a survey of the farm land.